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PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 3:16 pm 
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Graybeard wrote:
Slamlander wrote:
To add further interest, I suspect that all Tsuirakuans have some (1/54th) elven blood and the leadership knows it.
(emphasis added)
Yeah, I know, cat girls and all that, but I would love to hear your explanation of the genetics of that one. :wink:


Well, that number was barely a first approximation. The reasoning went thus;

Given: A generation is defined as the time from birth to first offspring. In humans, this could be as short as 13 years and Romans typicaly married off their girls at 12, as did most pre-christians. Ashurists (Followers of Ishtar/Astarte/Ashur) required Temple Service from about then and that dates back to Sumer. However, current humans statistically don't give first birth until their late 20's and human generations are currently assumed to be ~33 years. That's about 3 generations per century. Note that this has nothing to do with lifespan.

From that:

span/generation=number of generations ; 1500/33=~54 generations between the initial disappearance of Tsuiraku and its reappearance.

Strictly a back-of-the-napkin (first order approximation) calculation that takes in no other variables. A second order approximation would take into account:
1) Initial distribution of half-elves in the initial population.
2) number of viable females in initial group (males don't really count).
3) male/female birth proportion average.
4) proportion of recessive re-enforcement per generation
5) proportion of dominant re-enforcement per generation
6) Initial promiscuity data
7) etc.

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 4:23 pm 
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Zherical wrote:
What happened to BoOT? I see exiled soul with the same picture and am now worried.

Some cock-and-bull contrived situation involving Voldemort and Harry sharing souls, and, as an entirely separate issue, duo-component magic wands, at least three major characters in love all their lives with a female so beautiful and virtuous she has to be a stand-in for the author, and further proof that Hermione Granger is the absolute best traveling companion you can ever have on a quest. Also, three magical artifacts that didn't exist when the first five books were written, at least one bone-head mistake and one deux-ex-machina per chapter, a character list reminiscent of <i>The Longest Day</i> and a body count comparable to <i>Saving Private Ryan</i>, and the bad guys going down, for once, because the heroes are flat-out smarter then they are.

Oops, sorry, that wasn't my explanation of what happened to BOoT, it was my pocket review of a novel I just finished. Forgot the title, but it was a ripping good read even though the second and third hundred pages are a little slow.

:science: :eyebeams: :chef: :eng101:


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 4:42 pm 
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AncientVikingMaster wrote:
Killjoy wrote:
The person making the point wrote:
Slamlander wrote:
To add further interest, I suspect that all Tsuirakuans have some (1/54th) elven blood and the leadership knows it.


Assuming each person in Tsuiraku has exactly two biological parents, as did each of their ancestors, the denominator in that fraction is going to have to be an exponent of 2. 1/64-Elven is plausible, for example. (That's one Elven ancestor six generations back.)

(And no, I'm not a math major. I just like exponents of 2.)


What if someone has, randomly choosing, a half-elven great-great -grandparent and a half-elven great-great-great grandparent?


Yeah, if my maths play correctly, 1/54th parentage is technically possible... although it'd require some sexual gymnastics, and not in the pleasant way...

The situation Killjoy presented would result in someone who is 3/64-Elven. I'm not sure how you could wind up with a denominator that's not an exponent of two, even with a long and complicated family tree, although the numerator can certainly be larger than 1.

Slamlander wrote:
Graybeard wrote:
Slamlander wrote:
To add further interest, I suspect that all Tsuirakuans have some (1/54th) elven blood and the leadership knows it.
(emphasis added)
Yeah, I know, cat girls and all that, but I would love to hear your explanation of the genetics of that one. :wink:


Well, that number was barely a first approximation. The reasoning went thus;

Given: A generation is defined as the time from birth to first offspring. In humans, this could be as short as 13 years and Romans typicaly married off their girls at 12, as did most pre-christians. Ashurists (Followers of Ishtar/Astarte/Ashur) required Temple Service from about then and that dates back to Sumer. However, current humans statistically don't give first birth until their late 20's and human generations are currently assumed to be ~33 years. That's about 3 generations per century. Note that this has nothing to do with lifespan.

From that:

span/generation=number of generations ; 1500/33=~54 generations between the initial disappearance of Tsuiraku and its reappearance.

Strictly a back-of-the-napkin (first order approximation) calculation that takes in no other variables. A second order approximation would take into account:
1) Initial distribution of half-elves in the initial population.
2) number of viable females in initial group (males don't really count).
3) male/female birth proportion average.
4) proportion of recessive re-enforcement per generation
5) proportion of dominant re-enforcement per generation
6) Initial promiscuity data
7) etc.

Well, the fact that it's an approximation makes me feel better... but isn't 1500/33 ~= 45?


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 9:49 pm 
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BloodHenge wrote:
The situation Killjoy presented would result in someone who is 3/64-Elven. I'm not sure how you could wind up with a denominator that's not an exponent of two, even with a long and complicated family tree, although the numerator can certainly be larger than 1.


1/54th could be the approximate fraction, e.g. that 3/64ths is approximately 1/21st. 19/1024ths is approximately 1/54th. So if you had an Elf in your family six generations back, and aside from that person's ancestors you also had another Elf in your family eight generations back, and aside from his and the first guy's ancestors you had another Elf in your family ten generations back, you'd be approximately 1/54th Elf. Alternatively, since there probably weren't many if any whole Elves in the population, if 38 of your great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-grandparents were half-Elves, you'd be approximately 1/54th Elf.

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Well, the fact that it's an approximation makes me feel better... but isn't 1500/33 ~= 45?


That, and why does he give a percentage of 1/[# of generations]? I think it'd be something like

[% of half-Elves in original populations]*[# of generations elapsed]^2/[# of generations elapsed]^2*2

to get the percentage of Elf blood in you. For every 2 half-Elves in your family n generations ago, you have 1/(n^2) Elf blood, so you have half as much Elf blood as the number of half-Elves in your ancestry n generations ago divided by the number of ancestors you had n generations ago, which is 2^n. Of course, now that I think about it this simplifies to

[% of half-Elves in original populations]/2

So the average Tsuirakuan has a percent of Elven blood equal to half of the percentage of the original Tsuirakuan population who were half-Elves, which seems pretty straightforward and obvious in hindsight.

So the question is, what percent of the original Tsuirakuan population were half-Elven? Divide that by 2 and you'll have the average amount of Elven blood in today's Tsuirakuan. Of course, this is presuming that all half-Elves were literally *half* Elven, and not just partial-Elves of some degree.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 29, 2007 12:00 am 
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Forrest, that was beautiful.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 29, 2007 3:58 am 
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 31, 2007 4:25 pm 
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EDIT: Wrong thread. Move along.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2007 1:32 am 
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Graybeard wrote:
Slamlander wrote:
Gladi wrote:
USSR.

Sorry if you were making joke, but this the internet.


:confused: :confused: :confused: ???USSR??? :confused: :confused: :confused:

Veracia similar to the USSR? I don't think so. More like Religious-Right (Bible belt) America and the Confederation is like the American West. Of course Tsuiraku is much like Japan. This only leaves Farrel, sort of like a primative meta-Europe, filled with Libertarians. Of course, that sort of sounds like California too. I dunno, I haven't really figured out Farrel yet.


The Northern Confederacy as American West analogy doesn't work too badly, although 1830s-vintage American Midwest might be a bit better. (The Confederacy at least seems peaceful, with nothing like the Range Wars.) However, there is a large difference between a region with monolithic (and in some eyes, retrograde) religious beliefs but a definitely secular government on one hand, and a full-blown theocracy on the other. A better analogy for Veracia might be post-revolutionary Iran. A better one yet might be the Aztec empire. Wonder if the Veracians practice human sacrifice?...


Ok, sorry for late reply, summer is not conductive for arguing over internet.

Marxism is in its basis a variant of Hegelian philosophy- which is nothing more than christian dogma with filed off serial numbers.

Plus there is a bit more to it, than the theocracy- it is also the large country to east, ruled by idiots, and just generally being totally primitive.

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2007 2:08 am 
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And one final blip on the half-elf genetics: A half-elf generation may be only about as long as a human's, but they stick around to have sex with their great granddaughters... if they don't pay enough attention to bloodlines. And, hell, all you need is one fullblood elf male who came over to the darkside. He would be having sex with a different woman in each generation for the entire history of the city... if not many.

We are used to generations with static expiration dates. Those of even partial elven blood make things interesting. Its like with Zues in greek mythology. After a few dozen generations of rampant mortal molestations, the genepool of the nobles was literally swimming in divine spooge... er, I mean blood.

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